Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.957647 2.070496 2.188885 2.322772 2.470505 2.629137 2.813158
2025-09-14 1.769347 1.922526 2.090600 2.290188 2.522720 2.787605 3.115892
2025-09-21 1.643214 1.817018 2.013445 2.254568 2.546432 2.893541 3.345959
2025-09-28 1.543627 1.729490 1.944310 2.214883 2.552492 2.968406 3.534103
2025-10-05 1.499660 1.701660 1.940281 2.248595 2.645316 3.152281 3.874093
2025-10-12 1.463102 1.678790 1.938559 2.282019 2.736680 3.338167 4.233698
2025-10-19 1.428539 1.655302 1.933140 2.308199 2.817806 3.514322 4.597338
2025-10-26 1.382506 1.614484 1.902638 2.298214 2.847359 3.618761 4.864105
2025-11-02 1.340463 1.576323 1.872932 2.286388 2.871832 3.715679 5.128223
2025-11-09 1.295912 1.532769 1.833714 2.258656 2.870624 3.772651 5.332020
2025-11-16 1.254237 1.491133 1.794909 2.228863 2.863524 3.818568 5.520703
2025-11-23 1.227426 1.467741 1.779120 2.229874 2.900944 3.935578 5.848258
2025-11-30 1.205177 1.450027 1.770820 2.241883 2.956934 4.089480 6.272384
2025-12-07 1.169203 1.412732 1.734257 2.211133 2.945019 4.130121 6.485672
2025-12-14 1.134586 1.376073 1.697088 2.177482 2.926005 4.156335 6.673005
2025-12-21 1.100767 1.339432 1.658591 2.139968 2.898291 4.164627 6.823644
2025-12-28 1.091745 1.336176 1.666529 2.171837 2.983826 4.379850 7.459631
2026-01-04 1.083133 1.333043 1.674273 2.203417 3.070564 4.605846 8.172103
2026-01-11 1.072851 1.327148 1.677652 2.228142 3.147090 4.820601 8.912513
2026-01-18 1.052957 1.307161 1.659840 2.218714 3.163959 4.920696 9.383021
2026-01-25 1.033557 1.287309 1.641520 2.207544 3.176825 5.013687 9.857975
2026-02-01 1.010793 1.262104 1.614541 2.181345 3.161269 5.046704 10.170080
2026-02-08 0.988479 1.237016 1.587023 2.153186 3.140539 5.066957 10.450575